Humanoid Robots Face Delayed Breakthrough, UBS Says
Humanoid robots are unlikely to reach a major technological breakthrough or widespread adoption within the next five years, according to Swiss bank UBS.
UBS analyst Phyllis Wang said the sector has not yet reached its "EV moment," a term she used to describe the point when sales jump from 1 million to 10 million units over five years due to resolved bottlenecks.
Wang cited challenges in artificial intelligence, data collection, and regulatory frameworks as key barriers to rapid progress.
Despite these hurdles, UBS forecasts the global humanoid robot population will exceed 300 million by 2025, with annual demand reaching 86 million units.
The market value of the humanoid robotics industry chain is projected to range from USD 1.4 trillion to USD 1.7 trillion.
Wang noted that gradual progress is expected in sectors such as elderly care, labour shortages, and global manufacturing, particularly in ageing societies.
The humanoid robotics sector has gained attention this year, with robots featured at major events like China Central Television’s New Year’s Gala and various sports competitions.
Government support has also accelerated development. Premier Li Qiang highlighted “embodied intelligence” in his March work report, and cities including Shenzhen, Beijing, and Shanghai have launched dedicated industry funds.
UBS reported that investment deals in humanoid robotics rose from six deals worth USD 63 million in 2022 to 40 deals totalling USD 562 million in 2024.
Recent funding rounds include nearly USD 69.7 million for Deep Robotics and USD 69.7 million for Robotera. Start-up TARS raised USD 122 million despite not having a product.
Shanghai-based Agibot announced plans to acquire Swancor Advanced Materials, potentially becoming the first publicly listed humanoid robotics firm if the deal is completed.
Agibot also demonstrated a wheeled robot in a Sichuan factory, which took 40 seconds to move a box—10 seconds slower than a human worker.
Wang warned that hardware components like actuators and dexterous hands remain underdeveloped, and AI is still in early stages.
She added that infrastructure, legal systems, and regulatory standards are not yet in place to support rapid growth.
UBS expects upstream component suppliers, such as those producing screws and sensors, to benefit more in the next three to five years. These parts account for 14% and 27% of production costs, respectively.
Semiconductors currently make up 1% to 2% of total costs, or about USD 1,400 per unit, but UBS predicts midstream robot makers will eventually regain market dominance.
Initial applications for humanoid robots are expected in high-margin, automated sectors like automotive and electrical equipment manufacturing.
UBS said household adoption will only become viable when average robot prices drop by more than 70% from current levels.
UBS says humanoid robots unlikely to see major breakthrough within five years
Global robot population projected to exceed 300 million by 2025
Investment in sector surged to USD 562 million in 2024
Source: SCMP
