China's Major Cities Poised for Robotaxi Expansion by 2030

China is projected to have 300,000 driverless taxis operating in its four top-tier cities by 2030. This growth is expected due to advancements in artificial intelligence and the nation's competitive electric vehicle sector.

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The number of robotaxis across mainland China could reach 4 million by the late 2030s. Paul Gong, head of China automotive research at UBS, stated that more Chinese passengers are willing to embrace these new technologies.

Gong noted that autonomous vehicles will significantly boost productivity, citing rapid technological development and increasing labour costs. He added that the mainland's robotaxi market could eventually generate USD 183 billion annually if all 2 million taxis and 5 million ride-hailing cars convert to driverless cabs.

Gong did not provide a timeline for the full commercialisation of the robotaxi business on the mainland. He stated that it depends on regulatory frameworks and customer reactions.

This optimistic projection aligns with an HSBC estimate from last month, which suggested robotaxis would comprise 6% of the country's total taxi market. HSBC projected an initial market size exceeding USD 40 billion annually, but did not specify when local operators would reach this goal.

Autonomous taxis could also generate USD 30 billion annually by offering logistics and delivery services, in addition to transporting passengers. This was stated in an HSBC research report published on July 14.

Gong identified the reduced cost of building electric vehicles with autonomous technologies as the primary driver for expanding robotaxi fleets across the mainland. He estimated the production cost for a self-driving taxi would decrease to less than USD 41,935.

Robotaxi executives reported that each autonomous car cost approximately 500,000 yuan a few years ago.

Robotaxis currently possess Level 4 (L4) self-driving capabilities, according to SAE International, a global standards body. This means they generally do not require human intervention. L4 is considered a crucial step towards Level 5 fully autonomous driving, which would allow manufacturers and freight companies to operate entirely driverless fleets.

Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, the mainland's four first-tier cities, have initiated trial runs of robotaxis. Leading organisations in this sector include Apollo, Pony.ai, and WeRide.

These trials involved dozens of driverless taxis operating in specific areas. The fees charged were as low as 10% of the average ride cost currently.

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Apollo, Baidu's self-driving unit, has operated one of the world's largest robotaxi networks in Wuhan, the capital of Hubei province. Hundreds of its driverless taxis can cover 35% of the city's roads there.

Tesla was reportedly seeking regulatory approval last year to operate its robotaxi business on the mainland, according to a China Daily report.

Chinese autonomous driving firm Pony.ai is preparing for mass production of driverless cabs. This aims to make its robotaxis more widely available and affordable, with technological advancements accelerating its path to commercialisation.

Pony.ai co-founder and chief technology officer Lou Tiancheng stated in July that the company expects its autonomous car production to increase in the second half of 2025. Leading Chinese robotaxi firms are also exploring expansion into international markets to pursue greater profits.

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• China expects 300,000 driverless taxis in four major cities by 2030, potentially reaching 4 million by the late 2030s.

• The robotaxi market could generate USD 183 billion annually from passenger services and an additional USD 30 billion from logistics.

• Reduced production costs for electric vehicles with autonomous technology are a key growth driver.

Source: SCMP