China Humanoid Robot Sales Forecast Doubles Amid Falling Production Costs
- tech360.tv
- 4 hours ago
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Morgan Stanley has significantly revised its forecast for China's humanoid robot sales, now expecting a 133% increase to 28,000 units this year. The US investment bank previously projected sales of 14,000 units.
This revised outlook comes as the industry experiences rapid growth within the world's second largest economy. Falling production costs are also set to make owning robots more accessible.
The cost of materials for producing robots in China, home to most of the industry's supply chain, is expected to drop by 16% this year, according to Morgan Stanley. Consulting firm Bain & Co. anticipates global parts prices will decrease by approximately 70% by 2035.
These reductions will lead to lower prices for humanoid robots. Morgan Stanley predicts prices in middle- and low-income countries, including China, will fall from USD 50,000 in 2024 to around USD 21,000 by 2050.
For wealthy nations such as the United States, the average price is expected to decrease from USD 200,000 in 2024 to USD 75,000 in the same period. Morgan Stanley forecasts that humanoid robot installations will become more pervasive.
By 2036, an estimated 25.4 million human-shaped machines will be in use, representing 2% of the broader market that includes robotic arms and wheeled robots. This proportion is projected to reach 13% by 2040 and 42% by 2044.
The bank expects about 1 billion humanoid robots to be adopted by 2050, with over half concentrated in upper middle-income countries, including China. Market intelligence provider Counterpoint Research indicates China already leads globally, accounting for over 80% of humanoid robot installations in 2025.
Bain suggests that robots will initially be deployed extensively in the automotive, mining, and construction sectors. The consumer market is anticipated to take off by 2035, focusing on social, education, and domestic applications.
Morgan Stanley believes non-humanoid robots will "see faster near-term commercialisation, with better immediate return on investment and stability." Separately, consulting firm Bain & Co. suggests non-humanoid robots will execute highly repetitive workflows, allowing humanoids to perform more general tasks.
The investment bank upgraded China's market sales volume "based on the latest 2025 numbers and current progress." Industry leader Unitree Robotics reported that its shipments of humanoids surpassed 5,500 units in 2025.
Actual orders for Unitree Robotics were higher than shipments. AgiBot, another major player, anticipates its 2026 shipments will reach "tens of thousands," Chinese media Jiemian reported, citing company executive Zhu Jie.
Morgan Stanley forecasts exponential growth in China's humanoid robot sales, projecting 262,000 units by 2030 and 2.6 million by 2035, up from approximately 12,000 last year. Aggressive promotions have commenced, with several robot makers partnering with the Spring Festival Gala.
The gala, one of the world's most-watched television shows, will be aired by state broadcaster China Central Television on Feb. 16. Unitree and Magiclab have a deal for the event, alongside other firms such as ByteDance's cloud unit Volcano Engine, e-bike maker Shouqu, and robot cleaning brands Dreame and Mova, which will be highlighted.
The show has evolved into a high-stakes proving ground for market influence. Unitree previously garnered attention at the gala when its six humanoid robots performed a synchronised folk dance.
Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk of Tesla stated that "by far the biggest competition for humanoid robots will be from China." He added that China "is incredibly good at scaling, manufacturing" and "quite good at AI."
Morgan Stanley raised its forecast for China's humanoid robot sales to 28,000 units this year, a 133% increase.
Production costs for robot parts in China are expected to drop by 16% this year, contributing to lower robot prices globally.
Humanoid robot prices are projected to decrease significantly by 2050, making them more accessible in various countries.
Source: SCMP
